The center of California conservatism has shifted

If you look at a map of the 2024 presidential election results, you can draw a squiggly line down the state of California, splitting it in two from north to south. The coastal area of the state voted overwhelmingly blue, while the inland area is almost entirely red (with the exception of three small counties bordering Nevada). Many of the rouge-colored counties flipped from blue to red in that most recent election, but new research analyzing the state’s political leanings has mapped out some core findings from California’s political divide. 

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A recent report from the Public Policy Institute of California underscores many long-held stereotypes but also finds some key surprises.

For example, there was once a strong divide between north and south in the state, with most areas surrounding Los Angeles leaning Republican. Some pockets still exist, but Orange County, known for its conservative strongholds, has made a steady shift left that’s helped dilute a historically conservative area. Instead, the report found California’s conservative heartbeat in the northern area that includes suburbs of Sacramento and the Redding/Red Bluff area. At least 40% of residents there describe themselves as conservative. “[Orange] County is more of a swing county than the bastion of conservatism like it used to be,” study author Eric McGhee said. 

Even the most conservative regions, though, still typically agree with the rest of California on three policy issues. The majority of Californians support action on climate change and abortion access, and view immigration positively, the study found. Only Shasta County and the central eastern border of the state (including counties like Inyo and Mono counties) have support for immigrants at less than 50%. The highest support for independent state action on climate change is around the San Francisco and Los Angeles metropolitan areas, but 65% of all state residents support it. Even abortion access, a perennially controversial issue, has most Californians in agreement — 70% support it without restrictions or with restrictions that leave it mostly legal.

“There is variation around the state, but the conservative parts of the state aren’t as conservative as Texas or Kansas or Mississippi,” McGhee said.

The PPIC’s analysis split the state into 46 areas, using data from its annual statewide survey that contacts thousands of Californians each year to ask about policy issues. It then uses a model to further estimate public opinion.

Overwhelmingly, the study found that Californians agree that housing is a big problem. Areas along the coast are most concerned, with more than 70% of respondents saying it was an issue in their areas. More than 50% of all others surveyed said it was a problem. 

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The growing anxiety around housing can be seen most in the inland areas. The Kern, Shasta and north central regions of the state had the biggest jump in concern over the past 20 years, increasing 20 percentage points or more. Meanwhile, concern has declined in San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo counties and in coastal LA. “We think of the Bay Area as being where the housing crisis is, but it’s actually not where the housing crisis is,” McGhee said.

Overall, most Californians think rough economic conditions are ahead, though the liberal areas are the most concerned. Over 80% of parts of the Bay Area and central LA predict bad economic times ahead, and more than 60% think that’s true in the far north and Central Valley. 

The last time the nonpartisan think tank released this report was in 2020, and the most obvious changes are seen in how inland parts of the state think about housing. When asked where he thought he would see the biggest changes in responses when the PPIC does this analysis in five to 10 years, McGhee said he’d “watch the Central Valley” and areas like the Sacramento suburbs, which are growing the fastest in population. 

“A lot of the affordability crisis is really about the interior of the state,” he said.