New poll shows Californians deeply divided over Proposition 40

A California billionaire tax proposal is skating toward a narrow win in November according to a poll released Tuesday, although the measure is exposing deep generational divides in the state. 

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A slim 52% of voters support Proposition 40, which would levy a one-time tax on billionaires, according to a Public Policy Institute of California poll. The poll found opposition was close behind, with 46% of voters not supporting it. Surveys have found voters consistently support the measure, although the latest PPIC poll shows a slight decrease in support from when the same group asked voters about the measure in the spring.

One of the proposition’s union backers, the Service Employees International Union-United Healthcare Workers West, say the tax will generate $100 billion to support healthcare in the state and help backfill cuts from the Trump administration. The measure would levy a one-time 5% tax on the approximately 250 billionaires who lived in the state on Jan. 1, 2026, and it would be owed with their 2026 tax returns, although the billionaires could pay in installments. The nonprofit California Budget & Policy Center estimated the revenue at tens of billions of dollars, although the think tank said any estimate is highly uncertain because of possible tax avoidance by the ultrawealthy.

The possibility of a tax appears to have played a role in billionaires like Google co-founder Larry Page and Steven Spielberg leaving the state. 

Fellow Google founder Sergey Brin has spent over $100 million fighting the tax proposal, including supporting a countermeasure labeled Proposition 41, which would nullify Prop. 40 if it receives more votes than the billionaire tax. 

Tuesday’s poll found that voters are also narrowly supporting Prop. 41, with 51% in support and 44% in opposition. 

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Views on the billionaire tax are sharply divided by party, with 72% of Democrats supporting it and 77% of Republicans opposing the tax proposal. But the issue is nearly as divisive across age groups: an overwhelming 76% of 18- to 34-year-olds said they support the tax on the ultrawealthy, while 61% of people over age 55 are opposed to it. That older group includes primarily baby boomers, who are 62 to 80 years old. 

The PPIC poll was conducted Sept. 4-10 and included 1,745 California residents. The survey has a margin of error of 3 percentage points. 

Beyond the billionaire tax, the survey found Democratic candidate for governor Xavier Becerra pulling in a strong 60% of voter support.