Former GOP representative basks in likely win as Dems fumble Prop. 50 district

Congressman Kevin Kiley was one of the main targets of Proposition 50, the Democratic-backed redistricting effort passed by voters last year, but he has managed to come out on top based on early ballot results in the Congressional District 6 race. 

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Kiley, a former Republican who was first elected in 2016, changed his party identification to independent after California passed a redistricting measure last year that intended to ice out GOP congressional members, like him, from being reelected. But early results from Tuesday night’s open primary election puts Kiley in the lead ahead of Democrats who were once thought to be a shoo-in the new bluer suburban Sacramento district. 

Based on early results from the Secretary of State, Kiley is in the lead with almost 27%, followed by Republican Michael Stansfield, a tech support worker and ex-seminary student, who got 22% of the vote, and Democrat Richard Pan, a physician and former state senator, is a close third with 21%. The New York Times reported 48% of votes are in. 

Kiley basked in the favorable results that came in late Tuesday night, boasting that he had the chance to make history with this election. 

“Never before has an independent been elected to Congress from California,” he said, calling early results “very encouraging.” He pointed fingers at the redistricting proposal, calling it “self-serving.”

“You see certain politicians think that they can move lines around on a map and choose your representative for you, but they forgot one thing: We still get to vote,” he said.

Kiley’s previous House district covering Lake Tahoe, Death Valley and the foothills of the Sierra, was one of the main ones targeted by Democrats, who sought to virtually erase his seat by reallocating voters elsewhere. As a result of Prop. 50, his seat was split up into six slices. Now, Kiley’s success is becoming a source of anxiety for Democrats as ballots continue to be counted.

Political analyst Paul Mitchell, who drafted the Prop. 50 maps, wrote on Twitter on Thursday to make a point that while people were concerned about a statistically unlikely Democratic shut-out in the governor’s race leading up to June 2, no one was seemingly paying attention to District 6. 

“I definitely think this is a big concern, and this is one of those things where Democrats had one job,” Mitchell said.

If Kiley and Stansfield make it to the November election, it would run counter to the plan that Gov. Gavin Newsom and Democrats had last year when pushing for redistricting to combat similar moves in Texas.

Mitchell said in an interview with CNN reporter Elex Michaelson on Wednesday evening that a Democrat joining the top two is likely, but the prospect of Kiley and a Republican garnering the top two spots is still a possibility. 

“You might have a situation where a Republican, who really is not a serious candidate, but is the only candidate in the field that had an R next to his name, he might make it into the second spot,” he said.

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Still, he said he predicts that ultimately Richard Pan, the leading Democrat in the race, will end up surpassing that Republican candidate. 

Stansfield’s early success comes as a shock to analysts –– and to himself –– given that he has no former elected office experience. He filed the candidacy paperwork by taking out a $17,000 loan, and had virtually no campaign or donors, the theologian told the Associated Press in a phone interview. He said that he wasn’t running with the intention of winning, but to “show Christianity and Judaism a God from the Bible who loves Muslims.”

Mitchell said that late ballots were still being counted as of Wednesday and that data shows that late ballots are leaning more Democratic, even in Placer County, the most conservative pocket in that House district. 

“We’re going to see that throughout the district,” he anticipated. He reasons that could lead to Pan, the Democrat, securing the second place spot.  

But he called the campaign to ensure Democrats won the Sacramento-area district “poorly executed” by Democrats.

He cautioned that this should be a lesson to Democrats and Republicans that “you cannot count on just snapping your fingers and picking up seats,” he said. “It really does take candidates and voters to make that happen. This could be a lost opportunity for Democrats.”

Even if the race ends up with Kiley and Pan, there is no certainty that the Democrat will win. Mitchell urges that it will remain a deeply competitive race.

Editor’s note: This story was updated at 9:30 a.m., June 5, to correct Paul Mitchell’s comments about the Democratic campaign in District 6.