New poll shows Californians’ preferences for 2028 presidential run

Voters in California are starting to feel lukewarm about the prospect of either former Vice President Kamala Harris or Gov. Gavin Newsom appearing on the 2028 presidential ticket, according to a recent poll.

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The new poll from Politico and UC Berkeley’s Citrin Center for Public Opinion Research, published on Tuesday, asked registered California voters about their attitudes regarding the possibility of the two leading California Democrats running for president. 

Researchers found voters are becoming less excited about their prospects compared with when they were last asked in March. Despite this, the governor has a clearer advantage over Harris.

The presidential field is expected to be crowded. At least 30 Democrats are anticipated to jump in for a chance, and among them are rumored to be notable California Democrats like Harris, Newsom and Silicon Valley Rep. Ro Khanna.

At the start of the year, Newsom had rallied voters behind the prospects of a presidential run, but it appears that the enthusiasm is dying down a bit. Voters’ excitement for Newsom fell from 48% in March to 37% in September, while excitement fell from 41% to 28% for Harris. 

Overall, Newsom is still harnessing support from Democrats. Sixty-one percent of them said they would be excited by a Newsom run, while a majority of Democrats –– 55% –– said they would not be excited by a Harris run. The poll did not ask voters about Khanna or other rumored candidates.

For Republicans and those not affiliated with any party, there is much less enthusiasm for both candidates, with about 93% and 85%, respectively, lacking excitement about either Newsom or Harris.

The data pooled a sample of 2,418 registered voters, including 1,983 likely voters, that were chosen at random. The survey interviews were conducted online in English and Spanish between Sept. 8 and 14. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.7%.

Newsom pledged in a recent interview while fly-fishing in Montana with CNN correspondent Jake Tapper that he would bow out of the race if Harris decided to run. 

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“I wouldn’t run if she ran,” the governor said. When Tapper pressed him on why, he reasoned that the two run in similar circles, which could force people to choose allegiances. “I know what that means, I know her base of supporters, I know her friends. The [Venn] diagram on that is just pure crossover … I wouldn’t do that to people.”

Harris has not commented publicly on whether or not she would run for public office again. She quelled any speculation about the governor’s race and said last summer that “after deep reflection,” she wouldn’t run for California governor. Harris has taken a back seat from the political limelight in the last two years, and she published a political memoir last year titled “107 Days” about her rushed presidential campaign.

Newsom also hasn’t said whether he is definitively running. But his recent press appearances throughout the South in key primary states suggest he is on an early tour in an attempt to appeal to voters. 

He told Tapper that his decision leans heavily on whether his four kids support him, a sentiment the governor has repeatedly shared in interviews. Newsom also said that he has to be honest with himself about whether he meets the moment or if he is “wasting everybody’s time.”

Tapper also asked Newsom about how critics said he should have run in 2024, but the governor said he “wasn’t ready” at the time and that he would have never run against former President Joe Biden. 

“If I did, I would have gotten crushed because I didn’t have a ‘why.’ You don’t have a big enough why, then you don’t belong there,” Newsom said.