Democratic socialists beat mainstream Democrats in latest Calif. poll

Cracks appear to be growing wider in California’s Democratic Party as surging interest in democratic socialism splits the party along generational lines, with mainstream Democrats struggling to get support, according to a new poll.

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The survey, released Wednesday by Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies, found that registered voters prefer a democratic socialist by nearly 10 percentage points above a “mainstream Democrat.” The divide was even starker for young people, with democratic socialism by far the more popular description for 18- to 39-year-old Democrats and democratic socialist candidates earning more than double the support of young people versus a mainstream Democrat.

Democratic socialism also showed higher support among independent voters, with 36% of independents saying the term made them more likely to support a candidate, while 34% said the democratic socialist label made them less likely to give support to a politician.

The survey asked registered voters how they felt about a candidate identified across five different descriptions, including “progressive,” “mainstream Democrat” and “a Democratic Socialist.” It did not ask about any specific candidates. The poll was conducted Aug. 3 to 9 and had a margin of error as high as 4 percentage points depending on the question asked.

The term “progressive” had the most support in the poll, with 40% of respondents saying they were more likely to vote for a candidate with that label. 

The term “socialism” has gone through many cycles in American politics, from a mainstream political label in the early 20th century to a toxic word as late as 2011. Now, the term, which generally refers to economic policies designed to reduce inequality, has seen a major resurgence that is threatening to tear the Democratic Party apart.

Members of the Democratic Socialists of America have notched surprising wins beating mainstream Democrats across the country, most notably New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani and U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. But so far, the strength of the DSA, which is the largest socialist political party in the country, has yet to be fully tested in California.

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Wednesday’s survey offers some promising early signals that socialists could fare well in upcoming November elections, as DSA candidates across the state run for office. In Sacramento, Rep. Doris Matsui is facing the biggest threat of her decadeslong career as a DSA member and Sacramento City Councilmember Mai Vang challenges the veteran party leader. Vang posted a surprise win over Matsui in the June primary, though both advanced to the runoff this November.

The Central Valley will see another test for socialism this fall, as progressive Democrat Randy Villegas faces off against Republican U.S. Rep. David Valadao. Villegas, who is supported by the DSAbut is not a full member, beat a more mainstream Democrat in this spring’s primary. 

Democrat LA Mayor Karen Bass is also facing a DSA challenger after City Councilmember Nithya Raman got a second place finish in the June primary.

The Berkeley poll found that different ethnicities within the Democratic Party did not have a large variation in their support for democratic socialist candidates, and every single ethnicity was more likely to say they would support a democratic socialist than a mainstream Democrat. 

The poll also showed a serious distaste for mainstream Democrats in the state, with more people having an aversion to the candidates with that label than supporting them. Only 29% of likely voters said a candidate being called a “mainstream Democrat” increased their chances of getting their support, while 36% said they were less inclined to vote for someone under that label.