Chance of rain as summer storm moves toward Bay Area
On Thursday morning, the National Weather Service reported dry lightning was striking parts of Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties — and a small risk that these conditions could spread across California.
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Throughout the Bay Area, there is an up to 15% chance of thunderstorms and light rain showers on Thursday. High elevations across the Central Coast are among the areas with the most concerning fire weather conditions. The likelihood of thunder decreases throughout the day, but the chance of rain sprinkles continues into Friday.
Forecasters in Los Angeles also reported an up to 25% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms throughout Southern California through Friday. Tropical storms in the eastern Pacific are partly driving the unusual summer weather.
“We’re going to keep monitoring this through the day to see if those cells generating lightning continue to take a more eastward track or if they decide to shift north,” Anamaria Navarrete, a meteorologist in the National Weather Service’s Bay Area office, told SFGATE. “If it shifts more toward the north, then that gives us a good chance of getting some thunder over our area. Depending on other factors, we might get some light rain.”
Moisture from the remnants of former Tropical Storm Iselle is contributing to the weather. The Pacific Ocean has been active this year. El Niño, which the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center recently reported is likely to reach historic strength this fall, can intensify the east Pacific hurricane season.
“Even though those tropical systems are moving over the open ocean far away from the West Coast, the moisture is getting caught up in a south-to-north flow across Southern California,” Rich Thompson, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Los Angeles, explained to SFGATE. “In this case, that’s giving us this isolated thunderstorm activity.”
Thompson said the dry lightning was troubling. “There is a bit of a heightened fire concern here for the dry lightning strike, and if you get a lightning strike in the wrong place, there could be issues,” he said.
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Temperatures in the Bay Area on Thursday are expected to stay slightly warmer than seasonal averages before a cooling trend begins on Friday and continues into next week. In the greater Los Angeles area, the cooldown is forecast to begin Saturday, with temperatures degreasing about 5 degrees each day through Monday.
By the middle of next week, the forecast shows rain chances returning to California due to yet another tropical system off the coast of Mexico.
“This pattern that we are in right now doesn’t happen very often, but it’s not unheard of,” Navarrete said. “With the very active Pacific hurricane season, we’re seeing it a bit more often this summer.”
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