With days to go, poll shows one candidate for California governor pulling away

With less than a week to go before election day, the latest polling in the California governor’s race shows Democrat Xavier Becerra pulling away with a tight race for second place between Democrat Tom Steyer and Republican Steve Hilton.

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The poll of 1,000 likely voters conducted by Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics found 28% of respondents were in favor of Becerra, while 22% supported Steyer. Hilton was a close third, getting 21% support in the poll. 

The poll was conducted May 27-28 and was made up of about 50% Democrats, 27% Republicans and 23% independents, with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. It’s the first poll to show two Democrats leading the field of candidates, although with the margin of error, Steyer and Hilton are effectively tied.

But it’s Becerra who continues to leap ahead of the pack, rising a full 9 percentage points since the previous Emerson/Inside California Politics poll was published in mid-May. Steyer and Hilton also saw an increase in support since the previous poll, with their numbers rising 5 and 4 percentage points respectively.

The rest of the top candidates, including Republican Chad Bianco, Democrat Katie Porter and Democrat Matt Mahan, have continued to lose support, with Bianco at 12%, while Porter and Mahan are both polling at about 5%. Former LA mayor Antonio Villaraigosa is at 2% while Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond is at 1%.

About 5% of respondents are undecided.

Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said the latest poll shows Becerra is maintaining his “frontrunner status” but that Steyer and Hilton have paths to getting on the November ballot.

“If Chad Bianco’s support erodes by Election Day, Hilton is positioned to benefit. Steyer’s path to the runoff depends on mobilizing younger voters while limiting further gains by Becerra, whose growing coalition could siphon support from Steyer,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a statement Saturday.

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California’s governor race has been especially dynamic in recent months, with no clear favorite for much of the year. Initially, splintered support among Democrats left Hilton and Bianco leading the field, a major headache for Democratic Party officials, as only the top two performers qualify for the November ballot under the state’s jungle primary system. The potential for a shutout in November led party officials to push low-performing candidates to drop out in March.

The race was further scrambled in April, when Democratic Congressman Eric Swalwell, then a leading candidate, dropped out of the race and resigned from Congress after being accused of sexual assault.

If Becerra remains the front-runner, it will be a remarkable turnaround for the former health and human services secretary under the Biden administration. In March, he was polling at just 5%.