{"id":504,"date":"2026-06-05T17:32:41","date_gmt":"2026-06-05T17:32:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sanfranciscomovingguide.com\/?p=504"},"modified":"2026-06-05T17:32:41","modified_gmt":"2026-06-05T17:32:41","slug":"former-gop-representative-basks-in-likely-win-as-dems-fumble-prop-50-district","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sanfranciscomovingguide.com\/?p=504","title":{"rendered":"Former GOP representative basks in likely win as Dems fumble Prop. 50 district"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Congressman Kevin Kiley was one of the main targets of Proposition 50, the Democratic-backed redistricting effort passed by voters last year, but he has managed to come out on top based on early ballot results in the Congressional District 6 race.\u00a0<\/p>

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Kiley, a former Republican who was first elected in 2016, changed his party identification to independent after California passed a redistricting measure last year that intended to ice out GOP congressional members, like him, from being reelected. But early results from Tuesday night\u2019s open primary election puts Kiley in the lead ahead of Democrats who were once thought to be a shoo-in the new bluer suburban Sacramento district.\u00a0<\/p><\/div>

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Based on early results from the Secretary of State, Kiley is in the lead with almost 27%, followed by Republican Michael Stansfield, a tech support worker and ex-seminary student, who got 22% of the vote, and Democrat Richard Pan, a physician and former state senator, is a close third with 21%. The New York Times\u00a0reported 48% of votes are in.\u00a0<\/p><\/div>

Kiley basked in the favorable results that came in late Tuesday night, boasting that he had the chance to make history with this election.\u00a0<\/p><\/div>

\u201cNever before has an independent been elected to Congress from California,\u201d he said, calling early results \u201cvery encouraging.\u201d He pointed fingers at the redistricting proposal, calling it \u201cself-serving.\u201d<\/p><\/div>

\u201cYou see certain politicians think that they can move lines around on a map and choose your representative for you, but they forgot one thing: We still get to vote,\u201d he said.<\/p><\/div>

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Kiley\u2019s previous House district covering Lake Tahoe, Death Valley and the foothills of the Sierra, was one of the main ones targeted by Democrats, who sought to virtually erase his seat by reallocating voters elsewhere. As a result of Prop. 50, his seat was split up into six slices. Now, Kiley\u2019s success is becoming a source of anxiety for Democrats as ballots continue to be counted.<\/p><\/div>

Political analyst Paul Mitchell, who drafted the Prop. 50 maps, wrote on Twitter on Thursday to make a point that while people were concerned about a statistically unlikely Democratic shut-out in the governor\u2019s race leading up to June 2, no one was seemingly paying attention to District 6.\u00a0<\/p><\/div>

\u201cI definitely think this is a big concern, and this is one of those things where Democrats had one job,\u201d Mitchell said.<\/p><\/div>

If Kiley and Stansfield make it to the November election, it would run counter to the plan that Gov. Gavin Newsom and Democrats had last year when pushing for redistricting to combat similar moves in Texas.<\/p><\/div>

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Mitchell said in an interview with CNN reporter Elex Michaelson on Wednesday evening that a Democrat joining the top two is likely, but the prospect of\u00a0Kiley and a Republican garnering the top two spots is still a possibility.\u00a0<\/p><\/div>

\u201cYou might have a situation where a Republican, who really is not a serious candidate, but is the only candidate in the field that had an R next to his name, he might make it into the second spot,\u201d he said.<\/p>

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Still, he said he predicts that ultimately Richard Pan, the leading Democrat in the race, will end up surpassing that Republican candidate.\u00a0<\/p><\/div>

Stansfield\u2019s early success comes as a shock to analysts \u2013\u2013 and to himself \u2013\u2013 given that he has no former elected office experience. He filed the candidacy paperwork by taking out a $17,000 loan, and had virtually no campaign or donors, the theologian told the Associated Press in a phone interview. He said that he wasn\u2019t running with the intention of winning, but to \u201cshow Christianity and Judaism a God from the Bible who loves Muslims.\u201d<\/p><\/div>

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Mitchell said that late ballots were still being counted as of Wednesday and that data shows that late ballots are leaning more Democratic, even in Placer County, the most conservative pocket in that House district.\u00a0<\/p><\/div>

\u201cWe\u2019re going to see that throughout the district,\u201d he anticipated. He reasons that could lead to Pan, the Democrat, securing the second place spot.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p><\/div>

But he called the campaign to ensure Democrats won the Sacramento-area district \u201cpoorly executed\u201d by Democrats.<\/p><\/div>

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