New Calif. governor’s race poll shows Becerra growing lead with days to go

The latest poll of the California governor’s race just days before the primary election shows Democrat Xavier Becerra widening his late lead. 

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A sprawling survey published Wednesday by the Public Policy Institute of California asked nearly 40 questions on California and national issues and gauged voters’ preferences in the governor’s race. 

Becerra, who has climbed in recent polls, is the leading candidate with 23% support among likely voters in PPIC’s poll, despite heavy scrutiny from his opponents in the last gubernatorial debate. Democrats attacked Becerra from all sides at the May 14 event: about a former staffer, Dana Williamson, pleading guilty to three charges including conspiracy to commit bank fraud; about his record serving as health secretary in the Biden administration; about how he will pay for his campaign promises.

The poll results show the momentum continues that Becerra built after former Rep. Eric Swalwell, who was a leading Democratic candidate, abruptly left the race over sexual assault allegations.

Just behind Becerra in the recent poll is Republican and former Fox News host Steve Hilton, with 20% support. Hilton has consistently fared well in the polls and received an endorsement from President Donald Trump. Hilton also made a point of correcting Becerra at the May 14 debate, after Becerra said he’d taken “the lead in the polls.” Hilton retorted that he is still ahead of Becerra in some polls. 

While Becerra and Hilton appear to be the leaders ahead of the primary, billionaire and Democratic candidate Tom Steyer is next behind the front-runners in the PPIC poll with 15% support. 

Steyer, a climate activist, has been using the promise that he wants to tax other billionaires as one of his big selling points. Steyer has been criticized for his frequent TV advertisements, which together broke a record as “the most expensive political advertising campaign in the country this year,” per AP. He was also a familiar face after he spent millions of his own fortune running for president in the 2020 election.

The other candidates are falling behind: Chad Bianco, the Republican sheriff of Riverside County, had 13% support in PPIC’s poll, followed by former Orange County congresswoman Katie Porter with 12% support. 

Democratic candidate and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, who has been backed with millions of dollars from Silicon Valley tech leaders, didn’t make the cut for the top five in PPIC’s poll, reaching just 7% support. 

Mark Baldassare, the poll director, told SFGATE by phone that a large percentage of likely voters have been paying attention to this year’s election. According to the survey, 7 in 10 likely voters either have been very closely following (23%) or fairly closely following (48%) the governor’s race.

“There have been just so many twists and turns and no clear front-runner for so long. That’s just been very engaging for voters,” Baldassare said. 

In addition to asking respondents about their preferred governor candidates, the poll gauged broader sentiment about state and national issues as well as Trump and Gov. Gavin Newsom.

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Baldassare said one of the most interesting takeaways from the survey was the “mood” of the likely voters going into the primary election.

“It’s a time when people are really concerned about the state of affairs, particularly with the nation, but also with California,” Baldassare said. 

The institute saw “record-high numbers,” he said, of people in California who feel the country is “going in the wrong direction.”

Baldassare said the election results could take up to a week for Californians because of a “wild card.” That wild card, he said, is undecided voters who could shake up the crowded race.

According to the survey, 2% of likely voters don’t know who they’ll vote for on Election Day.

“Californians are telling us that they’re enthusiastic about voting this year, but we do know from what we’re seeing is that a lot of people are holding back, they’re not quite sure who to vote for, and over the course of the next few days they’ll be trying to figure it out,” Baldassare said. 

The poll surveyed 1,707 residents across the state from May 14 to 18, narrowing the results down to 986 likely voters, and was commissioned by the Arjay R. and Frances F. Miller Foundation. The margin of error was +/- 3.2% for all adults and +/- 4.1% for likely voters. The survey took respondents about an average of 15.5 minutes and it was conducted online in both English and Spanish. 

California voters will decide which two candidates are to move on to the general election in a June 2 vote. The general election is scheduled to be held Nov. 3.