Connie Chan falling behind Scott Wiener, despite Pelosi endorsement

With less than two weeks before election day, Scott Wiener and Connie Chan are nearly tied as they battle to represent San Francisco in Congress, according to a recent poll.

Read more SF’s Instacart to pay $5M over Trump admin’s claims of US worker discrimination

According to from the USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab published Thursday, Wiener leads the race with 47% of likely voter support, compared with 41% for Chan, and another 9% who are still undecided. The survey’s margin of error is 4.6%, meaning Wiener is ahead, but only by a thread. 

“The margin of error overlaps, so that’s an effective tie between Wiener and Chan. So in some ways, this is really anyone’s race, with a slight edge to Scott Wiener,” Christian Grose, a USC professor and director of the Fair Elections Lab, told SFGATE in a phone call. 

Grose added that there is no ruling out either candidate. “She can still win based on this data,” he said, referring to Chan.

The seat is open after U.S. Rep. Nancy Pelosi announced her retirement last November. Wiener announced his candidacy days before Pelosi officially said she wasn’t going to run for reelection. He has name recognition to his advantage, after representing San Francisco in the state Senate for a decade, and previously serving on the San Francisco Board of Supervisors. 

Chan, meanwhile, is a city supervisor and has started to gain citywide recognition since jumping into the race a few weeks after Wiener. She also earned Pelosi’s endorsement before the June primary. Since then, Pelosi has helped bring in fundraising to Chan’s campaign. Still, Wiener has a $3 million fundraising edge, according to federal financial filings.

Wiener won the June primary with 40.7% of the vote, and an 11-point advantage on Chan, who finished in second with 29.7%. Political analysts have said that Wiener had an advantage going into the general election.

Read more Meta strikes deal with Zuckerberg to keep him in Calif. over billionaire tax

Pelosi is leaving office popular among voters, the poll found, citing 55% of voters who approve of her time in office. Respondents were even more favorable to San Francisco Mayor Daniel Lurie, with a 63% approval rate. Despite Pelosi’s favorability, the poll found that her supporters are not universally backing Chan. Of voters who somewhat approve of Pelosi, 60% are supporting Wiener. 

The survey also found that Wiener and Chan supporters come from different ideological backgrounds. 

Chan supporters have a positive view of Democratic Socialists of America, while Wiener supporters are those who have positive opinions about the Democratic Party. Chan supporters are also likely to be lower income and identify as working class. On the other hand, Wiener voters are more likely to have high income and identify as upper class, and view capitalism more favorably. 

The USC poll surveyed 454 likely voters by email in several languages, including English, Chinese, Spanish, Korean and Vietnamese. It was conducted between Oct. 16 and 19.