3 straight polls show once-flailing Democrat now front-runner in Calif. governor’s race

With nine candidates still in the running for governor, former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra remains the leading Democrat, according to three polls released this month. Republican Steve Hilton, the former Fox News host, remains the overall leading candidate.

Read more Giants beat Dodgers 6-2 as Bader and Haase hit back-to-back homers off Yamamoto

Becerra has skyrocketed in the polls since Rep. Eric Swalwell dropped out of the race in April following several sexual assault allegations against him. Perhaps Becerra’s name recognition is what has helped him ascend to be the favorite for Democrats who are still deciphering candidates in California’s jungle primary election. The June 2 primary will bring the two top candidates, regardless of party, to the general election.

The latest poll, published Sunday by research firm Kreate Strategies, put Hilton at the top — a position he has basked in for months now — with 22% of likely voter support. Becerra came in second with 20%, followed by progressive billionaire Democrat Tom Steyer at 14%. Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, a MAGA Republican, followed at 13%; and Democrats San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan and former U.S. Rep. Katie Porter each registered at 9%. That poll surveyed 900 voters by phone, by text and online between May 5 and 9 and had a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points.

Two other polls, both affiliated with Mahan’s campaign, were also released last week. Despite being commissioned by the Silicon Valley mayor and his supporters, they had similar results: Becerra and Hilton continue to be neck and neck at the top, with Mahan and other Democrats trailing.

A May 4 poll , paid for by the Mahan campaign, found that Hilton and Becerra were tied with 23% each. It also revealed that Steyer had 14%, Mahan had 10%, Bianco had 11%, and Porter had 10%. Long-shot Democrats Antonio Villaraigosa, the former mayor of Los Angeles, and Tony Thurmond, the state’s superintendent of public schools, each had 1%. That survey also polled 900 likely voters by phone and text and had a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points.

Another poll, this one published May 8 by research firm the Mellman Group, was paid for by the super PAC Back to Basics. The group was created to support Mahan and is bankrolled by Silicon Valley execs. It has already spent double-digit millions on TV ads supporting Mahan, including one that aired during the Super Bowl, but the May 8 poll was its first published poll.

The poll found once again that Becerra and Hilton were tied for the top, with 20% of likely voter support, followed by Bianco with 14% support. Then came a steady domino of Democrats: Steyer at 12%, Mahan at 10% and Porter at 9%. 

The Mellman Group linked Mahan to the surging Becerra by framing them as the only candidates with “a positive net favorable” advantage, meaning more respondents saying they viewed the candidate favorably versus unfavorably. The group polled 600 likely voters between May 3 and May 6 via text surveys and live interviews on cellphones and landlines. The margin of error was 4 percentage points.

Read more Dodgers give Shohei Ohtani a DH break as his offensive slump deepens

Becerra started off the first year of campaigning with a relatively low-key approach. Since he has risen in the polls, Becerra has brought out the boxing gloves, particularly as there have been three debates in three weeks with the primary approaching. In the April 28 gubernatorial debate aired on KCAL-TV, he made a snarky remark about how President Donald Trump is Hilton’s “daddy,” a break for the typically even-keeled politician. During the most recent debate, hosted on CNN last week by reporters Kaitlan Collins and Elex Michaelson, Becerra took a lot of hits from his competitors — many of whom are now refocusing ads against him as he gains ground with voters. 

With the spotlight on him, Becerra is also facing more pushback over his record in the Biden administration. 

Xochitl Hinojosa, formerly the director of the Department of Justice’s Office of Public Affairs under President Joe Biden, has been particularly outspoken, questioning whether Becerra is the right fit to combat Trump and saying that he was “not effective” during his time as health secretary. 

“California will be the target” of the Trump administration, Hinojosa warned. “… Whoever is going to be governor will have to stand up to Donald Trump. … After working in Joe Biden’s administration, I do not trust Xavier Becerra to do that.” When asked if Biden and former Vice President Kamala Harris agree with her assessment of Becerra, she said she has not spoken with them about it. Others who worked closely with Becerra spoke with Politico under condition of anonymity and shared that Becerra was “absent” during the COVID-19 response, while others criticized his lack of public health experience when he was appointed to the job.

After the May 5 debate, the Sacramento Bee did a wrap-up of what ex-White House officials said about Becerra’s track record. The outlet noted Michael LaRosa, a former spokesperson for then-first lady Jill Biden, wrote on X that Hinojosa’s assessment of Becerra was “the more accurate and most widely held view about him” and noted Becerra wasn’t Biden’s first pick for the HHS role. The Bee also quoted Ronald Klain, the former White House chief of staff, calling Becerra one of the “most valued and highest performing members” of the Cabinet.

Becerra has also been pressed on his position on single-payer health care, which he previously said he supported but has since waffled on. He is also under scrutiny for federal corruption charges swirling around his former staffers, who are accused of funneling campaign funds into personal accounts. Becerra is not facing any related charges and has denied any involvement or knowledge of the alleged wrongdoing. He said during the CNN debate, “If I had been involved, the U.S. attorney would have had me in that indictment. I was not involved.”